FORECASTING for FAME

‘Forecasting for fame’ is the statisticians’ equivalent to “dialing for dollars”, featured in the TV show by that name aired between 1967 and 1980. With fame comes public influence and money.

Predicting the future.

Past predictors of the future depended on tarot cards, ouiji boards, tea leaves, crystal balls, palm reading and the words of notorious seers like Nostradamus and respected Biblical scholars.

Paralleling the many advances in computer processing, statistical modelling has growth to achieve unprecended dominance in the popularity of forecasting. The ages-old parlour tricks and ‘predators of the faithful’ have all but lost the trust of the public. ‘Creative destruction’ can be a bitch when she’s armed with ever-advancing tech tools.

Centre Stage

The most infamous forms of future forecasting are found in the realms of weather /climate and in epidemics/pandemics.

The ability to forcast the future convincingly is a power that stirs even the envy of the gods on Mount Olympus. I am envious too! Imagine having the powers of Greta Thunberg and Al Gore at the height of their fame when half of humanity hung onto their every word and prognostication. Even the Beatles failed to reach that level of politico-social and economic impact!

The ever-changing gods.

German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche declared that “God is dead” in 1882. In 1966, John Lennon claimed the Beatles to be “more popular than Jesus”. Were these men foreseeing the future? Did they have the Nostradamus gift (curse?) to glimpse a future in which technologically empowered secularism would eclipse the major world religions in their influence on morality and culture planet-wide?

From Lennon’s own success as a Beatle, was he enlightened to the true power of mass media and its ability to infiltrate and take up residence in the consciousness of every message consumer?

The dawning of mass media.

Lennon lived in the early years of the “computer & communications revolution”. He died before the introduction of personal computers, smart phones, Google searches and internet shopping. I wonder how he would react to contemporary society if he “pulled a Lazarus” and crawled out of his tomb. After a little time to familiarize himself with the sh*t show we call “modern life”, his first music video would likely be called “I told you so” and it would surely include a chorus of devilish, manic laughter as he danced a jig of glee on top of his rolled back tombstone shouting “I told you so, I told you so”.

Meanwhile….

Advanced in AI, quantum computers and software engineering will continue to boost the modelling prowess of all statisticians who live under the delusion that it is actually possible to accurately predict the future.  It would be great if this were true because few would object to all the taxation and deranged public policies that we are forced to endure if we were certain that these measures were justified, based on reliable future forecasting. As it stands, however, we must suffer the hubris of the Political Gods who wield untold powers backed by their alleged superpowers, “The Science”.

TO John Lennon, wherever your spirit is resting.

I eagerly await your “second coming”. I expect it to be a “second act” in which you to sing your song, dance your jig and help us to truly see ourselves in the mirror of your consciousness.  I am confident that this would awaken us to the reality that we are a gullible species, easily manipulated and controlled.

Now THAT would be a mass media event that I could get behind!